Update: FilmEdge’s Academy Award Predictions

Revisiting our early Oscar handicapping article from February 2nd, I’m following up on a couple of categories to update FilmEdge predictions:

The results of last night’s WGA Awards only bolster our choices for Best Original and Adapted Screenplay categories. Mark Boal’s script for THE HURT LOCKER beat out the Coen brothers’ A SERIOUS MAN, which was its only direct Academy Award-nominated competitor in the WGA’s field.  LOCKER will face a tougher challenge against INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, THE MESSENGER and UP which were either not nominated or made ineligible under WGA Award rules.   FilmEdge’s handicapping still picks this a race between Boal and Quentin Tarantino, and we maintain that Mark Boal will walk away with the hardware on March 7th for Original Screeplay for THE HURT LOCKER.

Likewise the WGA win for Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner in the Adapted Screenplay column came as no shock, and their win doesn’t change our predictions either.  The duo had only one fellow Oscar nominee in the WGA’s category, Geoffrey Fletcher’s PRECIOUS, and faces a very different field from the Academy including Neill Blomkamp and Terry Tatchell’s DISTRICT 9, Nick Hornby’s AN EDUCATION and IN THE LOOP by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche.  FilmEdge still thinks Reitman and Turner will take the Adapted Screenplay Oscar for UP IN THE AIR in one of those bizarre-logic voting results which reward Reitman’s overall effort on the timely film without giving him Best Director or Best Picture victories. They say it’s an honor just to be nominated.

Adding in a couple predictions for categories we hadn’t picked in our earlier blog post:

FilmEdge casts its vote for THE COVE in the Best Documentary Feature category, and THE WHITE RIBBON (Germany) for Best Foreign Language Film. More Oscar prediction updates as the ceremony approaches.

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